Meyers

Analytics

Analytics

Advanced Mathematical Trading Strategies & Walk Forward Out-Of-Sample Analysis

applied to algorithmic trading of stocks, futures & forex

Info: (305) 549-5843 support@meyersanalytics.com

applied to algorithmic trading of stocks, futures & forex

Info: (305) 549-5843 support@meyersanalytics.com

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Power Walk Forward

Optimizer Walk Forward

Metric Explorer Walk Forward

Input Explorer Walk Forward

Surface Explorer Key Daily & Intraday

Trading Strategies Nth Order Fixed Memory

Polynomial Strategy Nth Order Fading Memory

Polynomial Strategy End Point Fast Fourier

Transform Strategy Goertzel DFT

Strategy Five Parameter

Parabolic Strategy Dennis Meyers

Working Papers

Optimizer Walk Forward

Metric Explorer Walk Forward

Input Explorer Walk Forward

Surface Explorer Key Daily & Intraday

Trading Strategies Nth Order Fixed Memory

Polynomial Strategy Nth Order Fading Memory

Polynomial Strategy End Point Fast Fourier

Transform Strategy Goertzel DFT

Strategy Five Parameter

Parabolic Strategy Dennis Meyers

Working Papers

To try and avoid the false signals generated by a single lookback period we create a range indicator that uses a variable lookback period. To calculate this indicator we find the maximum range over n lookback days of the today's high minus the lowest low in that lookback period of n days. We normalize this n day range by dividing it by the average of each bar's true range for those n days to create a range ratio. In constructing this ratio, we noticed that the longer the lookback period n is, the larger the ratio is on average than a ratio with a shorter lookback period.. The different lookback period ratios can be made approximately equal, on average, by dividing by some function of n. For this new indicator we choose the function of n to be equal to n^{ α } . That is, n to the a power where α is less than 1 and where α is determined later by optimization. We then look for the largest adjusted range ratio in that n lookback period. To do that we calculate each of the adjusted range ratios for 2,3,4 to n lookback bars and choose the largest as our indicator.

**Maximum Likelihood Range System Input Parameters**

**Mark**= Mark=0 means the position is not marked to the market on the last bar. Mark=1 means it is.**slen**= The starting range lookback period.**llen**= The ending range lookback period.**α**= The exponent of the range weighting function**xoh**= The Maximum Likelihood Range buy level.**xol**= The Maximum Likelihood Range sell level.**XOpn**= Used only for Intraday bars. Prevents buys or sells until XOpn bars have past since the open. 0 = Ignore. Note, this input parameter avoids many opening gap whipsaws.**Xtime**, = Used only for Intraday bars. Exit position before or at the close. If XTime= 1610 then exit at 4:10pm EST. 0 = ignore .

For **TradeStation, Multicharts** all of the EasyLanguage strategy and indicator codes are directly importable into your choice of TS9 or MC and are ** fully disclosed.** There are

For **NeuroShell Trader/DayTrader Pro,** the Trading Strategy and Indicators are directly imported into NeuroShell via a special setup exe file and are fully disclosed in the Indicator wizard "MA_KeyTrSys" category and in the Trading Strategy Wizard "MA_KeyTrSys" directory. The C++ DLL code is not disclosed. The Input parameters to the strategy and indicator are changeable and optimizable so that the user can develop his own parameter set on his price series and time frame of interest. Although the system results will give parameters for the intraday or daily futures the system was tested on, the user can easily use this system on any tradeable or on any time frame.

The ** accompanying page manual** consists of:

**A short tutorial on the details of performing walk forward optimization with out-of-sample testing using TradeStation and how I look for the "best" parameters in a TS combinatorial optimization run(available in the TS Manual only).****A complete description of the Maximum Likelihood Range system, it's derivation and it's input parameters.****The walk forward optimization method used and a table of the walk forward results for the system.****The input parameter test ranges****A chart printout with the Strategy and it's associated Indicator with all the system buy and sell signals displayed on the chart.****Performance Summaries for the test period and the out-of sample period segments.**

In addition The Maximum Likelihood Range system has its exact duplicate in indicator form which is displayable on the price chart, so that the user can visually see how the buy and sell signals occur.

For **TradeStation, MultiCharts** ** The Maximum Likelihood Range System** is one of the 9 systems included in the Key Daily &Intraday Trading Systems package. The Key Daily &Intraday Trading Systems package is being offered through

For **NeuroShell Trader/DayTrader Pro,** ** The Maximum Likelihood Range System** is one of the 6 systems included in the Key Daily &Intraday Trading Systems package.. The Key Daily &Intraday Trading Systems package is being offered through

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Thank you for your Interest....Dennis Meyers